SAS: Lack of sustainable fuel could push aviation into new energy crisis

April 30, 2026

Europe risks a fuel shock as sustainable jet fuel supply falls far behind the 2030 mandate, a new SAS Aviation Insights report shows. Without rapid build out, the shortfall could push up fares, force route cuts and deepen Europe’s energy vulnerability at a moment when global fuel markets are already under pressure. 

The report shows that Europe is heading toward a structural shortage of e‑SAF as the ReFuelEU mandate enters into force. Demand will rise sharply from 2030, yet no European e‑SAF project has reached Final Investment Decision. Scandinavian aviation alone will require 36,000 tons in 2030, increasing to more than 160,000 tons by 2035 and 330,000 tons by 2040 — equal to roughly five full‑scale plants, none of which exist today.

In a tight market, e‑SAF prices are expected to move toward EU non‑compliance costs, several times higher than fossil jet fuel. This would raise airline operating costs and put pressure on European connectivity.

The report outlines two paths: either Europe reduces ambition under ReFuelEU or accelerates production through targeted policy support, investment incentives and infrastructure development. Without rapid action, Europe risks a long‑term imbalance in sustainable aviation fuel supply, leaving the sector exposed to regulatory and market shocks.

Documents

• The need for e-SAF in Scandinavia - English - April 30, 2026